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Steel industry in 2015 will be taken from a turning point to the trend Two ideas to pick stocks

The event

The national bureau of statistics data show that in December 2014, the national crude steel output of 2.1965 million tons, rose 4.1%. In December 2014, China's crude steel production 68.09 million tons, up 1.5%; 1 - December crude steel output of 822.7 million tons, up 0.9% from a year earlier. In December 2014, 56.86 million tons of pig iron production in China, up 3.7%; 1 - December pig iron production 711.6 million tons, up 0.5% from a year earlier. In December 2014, China's steel output of 2014 tons, up 6.4% from a year earlier. 1 - December rolled steel production 1.12557 billion tons, up 4.5% from a year earlier.


The new 14 years crude steel, cast iron, such as yield growth data, with intuitive feel obviously inconsistent. With the monthly data, upstream and downstream data of cross validation, we think the data reliability is low, and large probability to be underestimated. Based on steel association data, enterprise data, pig iron by three aspects of calculation, we judge the crude steel production in 2014 the real growth should be in 2-3%, corresponding to the domestic steel demand growth of 1-1.5%. Demand growth in 2014 from construction, metal products, containers, machinery parts, general machinery, special machinery; Manufacturing continue to contribute incremental in 2015, and real estate reduced greatly narrowed, we judge steel production increased by 3.9% in 2015, up 3% industry capacity utilization and the plate more obvious increase, is expected to reach 4 points or more.

Based on production cycle logic, we continue to watch the iron and steel, industry from a turning point to trends in 2015. And with steel prices from unilateral fell into shakeouts, steel refining margins to improve, will from only from the profit share of the ascension in 2014 (steel prices falling unilateral total profit making industry chain sharp contractions), turning at the same time from the profit share of total profits than ascension and industry chain. The key is to find your current investment profits improve high, method for production cycle and the demand cycle, inventory cycle of resonance, we determine the early in the second quarter or 4 quarter of probability is bigger, especially the former, focus on prompt attention. Choose a train of thought is based on two: high elasticity and low valuations, optimizing discussed.meanwhile, valin, baosteel, hebei.